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BLACK SWAN AIMS DAGGER AT TRUMP Comment on this post ↓
March 9th, 2020 by Warren Swil

Covid-19 virus poses

dire threat to his presidency

Donald J. Trump, Liar-in-Chief

Donald J. Trump, Liar-in-Chief

The Covid-19 virus pandemic – a veritable Black Swan event – poses the single greatest threat to the presidency of Donald Trump in his 38 months in office.
The total bungling of the exploding outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the US by his administration may not in itself damage this teflon pathological liar whose unshakable MAGA followers will believe any lies he tells them.
But the cascading economic damage it causes – as evidenced by the meltdown in the stock market on Monday – has the potential to make a Democratic victory in the November election almost inevitable.

It has become increasingly obvious over the last 10 days that Trump administration – filled with political hacks instead of subject matter experts – has totally bungled the federal government’s attempts to contain the spread of the virus.

CNBC chronicled Monday’s plummeting stock market.

CNBC chronicled Monday’s plummeting stock market.

The world has known about Covid-19 since late December. Apart from some totally ineffectual bans on international travel, the Trump administration did absolutely nothing to prepare the country till late February.
Even worse, despite clamoring from health care professionals, the CDC and FDA conspired to make it virtually impossible for Americans to get tested for the virus. As a result, during the last week of February, only about 15 cases were officially tallied in the US.
Besides masking the real scope of the problem, this allowed infected individuals more than six weeks to unknowingly spread the virus in their communities. This is exactly how Seattle emerged as the epicenter of the outbreak during the first week of March.
But it is not the incompetence of the Trump administration that will do serious harm to the president’s re-election prospects.
No, as Bill Clinton’s strategist James Carville famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
The plunge in the stock market is just the canary in the coal mine. Real damage is already under way in the real economy.
The first to be hit was the travel and tourism industry. Airlines are frantically cutting capacity; United has announced a 20 percent cut in international flights and 10 percent fewer domestic ones. Lufthansa is asking employees to take unpaid leave.
Hotels are facing an avalanche of cancellations. Major events like the South-by-Southwest conference are being cancelled. The missing 100,000 attendees will cost the Austin city budget millions of dollars.
The damage to retail will show up in American stores within weeks because factories in China have essentially been shut down since mid-January. The Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach is piled high with empty containers.

It will be weeks and months before the economic hit will show up in government statistics. The first indicators will come in the payroll numbers from ADP and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at the end of March.
By April and May the extent of the damage will start to show up in the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data.
Analysts cannot lower their earnings forecasts for public companies fast enough. Profits are expected to be flat or negative for the second and third quarters.
No matter how soothing the talk from Trump and his cronies, they cannot tweet away a devastating outbreak of lethal disease nor a rapidly swooning economy.
This is the first crisis of the Trump presidency not caused entirely by the president’s own calamitous misbehavior. With a bit of luck, it will be the last.

 

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2 Responses  
  • Bjorn Palenius writes:
    March 11th, 2020

    We could never know how the two clowns running as Democrats now, would handle the situation, but I’m sure they would have done a WORSE job!

  • Rex Morrow writes:
    March 26th, 2020

    Trump in the last few days seems to be all at sea. He’s trying to keep the whole thing obscure. That has to be so stupid. Keeping it under wraps will result in a an explosion of infection.


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